Understanding crime: The first step to preventing it

Alex Bomberg, Chairman and Founder, Intelligent (UK Holdings) Limited sheds light on the three academic theories that all security professionals should know.

Security professionals operate in a world where threats are constantly evolving and are coming over the horizon as if you were in a speeding train.

While many firms focus on technology and physical security measures playing a crucial role in safeguarding people and assets, understanding the psychology behind criminal behaviour and risk management is equally vital.

Theories from criminology and risk assessment provide valuable insights into how breaches occur and, more importantly, how they can be prevented. Whilst we move deeper into the digital age and AI advancement, we must understand the human elements to better protect our clients.

Coming from very much a “pracademic” angle, this article explores three essential academic theories that every security professional should understand and apply in their work: Rational Choice Theory, Broken Windows Theory and the Swiss Cheese Model.

These frameworks offer a structured way of thinking about crime deterrence, environmental security and risk management, all of which contribute to more effective security planning.

Rational Choice Theory

Rational Choice Theory is a fundamental concept in criminology that explains how offenders make calculated decisions before committing a crime.

This theory was first introduced in 1776 by Adam Smith and further developed and applied to crime Derek Cornish and Ronald V. Clarke in 1987, some 200 years after the theory fist came into being.

According to this theory, criminals weigh the potential risks and rewards of their actions before deciding whether to proceed. If the perceived benefits outweigh the likelihood of being caught or punished, the individual is more likely to commit the offence. For security professionals, this means that reducing criminal opportunities and increasing perceived risks can act as powerful deterrents. There are several ways to apply this theory to security strategies:

• Enhanced surveillance – the presence of CCTV cameras, security personnel and increased visibility reduces the likelihood of crime by making offenders feel observed. Criminals are less likely to take action when they believe they will be caught
• Access control – restricting access to sensitive areas through electronic passes, biometric scanners and gated entry points increases the difficulty of unauthorised entry
• Target hardening – strengthening physical security measures, such as reinforced locks, security barriers and alarms, makes committing a crime more challenging
• Public awareness campaigns – educating the public about security measures, such as warning signs indicating video surveillance or neighbourhood watch programs, creates an environment where offenders feel heightened risk

The strength of Rational Choice Theory lies in its emphasis on crime prevention rather than reaction. By making security threats more costly and difficult for offenders, professionals can significantly reduce crime rates in both public and private spaces

Broken Windows Theory

Broken Windows Theory, introduced by criminologists James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling in the 1980s, argues that visible signs of disorder in an environment encourage further criminal activity.

The theory suggests that if a single broken window in a building is left unrepaired, it signals neglect and a lack of control, potentially inviting more damage and crime.

This theory has been widely applied in policing and security management, particularly in urban environments where crime prevention strategies must address environmental factors. Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) principles very much address the fundamentals of the theory, the key applications for security professionals include:

• Maintaining orderly environments – ensuring that properties, streets and public spaces are well-maintained reduces the likelihood of criminal behaviour. Clean, well-lit and orderly environments suggest that authorities are in control, discouraging offenders from acting
• Rapid response to minor offences – addressing vandalism, graffiti and anti-social behaviour quickly prevents further escalation. Security professionals should advocate for prompt repairs and law enforcement interventions to maintain a sense of order
• Security patrols and community engagement – the visible presence of personnel can reinforce order and deter criminal activity. Additionally, engaging with local communities through outreach programs and public security meetings helps build trust and encourages residents to report minor issues before they escalate
• Psychological deterrents – environmental design elements, such as clear sightlines, strategic lighting and controlled access, create an atmosphere where crime is less likely to occur

Broken Windows Theory highlights the importance of environmental maintenance as a crime prevention tool. Professionals must consider how seemingly minor details – such as poor lighting, neglected infrastructure or an unkempt environment – can contribute to increased crime risks.

The Swiss Cheese Model

The Swiss Cheese Model, developed by psychologist James Reason in 1991, is primarily associated with risk management and accident prevention. However, it also has valuable applications in security, particularly when analysing system vulnerabilities and multi-layered defence strategies.

This model illustrates security as a series of defensive layers, each represented as a slice of Swiss cheese. Each layer has small weaknesses or “holes,” but when multiple layers are aligned, these weaknesses can sometimes align, allowing a security breach to occur.

The goal of an effective security system is to ensure that no single point of failure leads to a catastrophic event. For security professionals, the Swiss Cheese Model reinforces the need for multiple layers of defence and continual assessment of vulnerabilities. Practical applications include:

• Redundancy in security measures – no single security solution is infallible. Combining physical security with technological measures (alarms, surveillance etc.) and procedural controls (such as training and access control policies) creates a layered security system
• Human factors and training – one of the most common causes of security breaches is human error. Regular staff training, clear communication protocols and strict adherence to procedures help reduce the likelihood of mistakes that could be exploited
• Incident response and crisis management – security teams must prepare for worst-case scenarios by having backup systems in place. For example, if an electronic access control system fails, a secondary manual system should be ready to prevent unauthorised entry
• Continuous monitoring and adaptation – security risks evolve, so professionals must regularly assess existing measures and update protocols based on emerging threats. Conducting security audits and risk assessments ensures that potential vulnerabilities are identified before they become exploitable gaps

By viewing security as a multi-layered defence strategy, professionals can create robust systems that prevent a single weakness from causing a major failure. The Swiss Cheese Model reminds security practitioners that even well-designed security systems can fail if multiple weak points align, making constant evaluation and improvement essential.

The Swiss Cheese Model can be applied, in hindsight, to many major security incidents – for example, the Nice Attack (2016) or the Manchester Arena Bombing (2017), where there was a series of missed opportunities, lapses in security measures and systemic failures that, when layered together, allowed the attacks to take place.

Examining these incidents through this lens highlights the importance of a multi-layered, resilient security strategy where risks are mitigated at each stage to prevent a cascading failure leading to disaster.

A strategic advantage

Security professionals must understand the psychology of crime and risk management. Rational Choice Theory helps explain why criminals commit crimes and how security can manipulate risk and reward to deter them.

Broken Windows Theory highlights the importance of maintaining an orderly environment to discourage criminal behaviour before it escalates. The Swiss Cheese Model offers a structured approach to security layers, ensuring that no single vulnerability can lead to failure.

By integrating these academic theories into planning, professionals can build stronger, smarter and more resilient security frameworks. In an ever-changing threat landscape, knowledge of these principles is just as important as the tools and technologies used to implement them.

Understanding crime is the first step to preventing it. When professionals combine practical expertise with theoretical knowledge, they gain a strategic advantage.