What trends will shape maritime security in 2024?

ISJ hears from 2023 International Security Journal Influencer, Ebunoluwa George Ojo-Ami, Young Professional in Maritime Security and Unmanned Technology.

The surge in drone-related incidents targeting maritime assets has unveiled a new chapter within the maritime security space.

From explosive strikes to electronic cyber-warfare, the spectrum of threats now including drone attacks against ships and maritime infrastructures has widened, leaving many experts wrestling with evolving challenges.

The incidents reported in 2022 and 2023 serve as potent examples, highlighting the severity of these attacks from unmanned systems known as drones.

The sophistication and diversity of drone attacks has increased, with a mix of offensive capabilities ranging from self-detonating drones, as witnessed in the November 2022 attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, to electronic attacks tactics that can cause disruption to communication and navigation systems.

The unpredictability associated with drone attacks poses a considerable challenge, making it hard for actors in maritime systems like vessels to pre-empt or mitigate such threats effectively.

The threat advisories issued by the UKMTO highlight the growing concerns in the Northern Indian Ocean and Yemen regions, indicating a sharp increase in UAS activities.

When considering the August 2023 report of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian naval ship in the Black Sea, the absence of warnings or defensive manoeuvres during the assault highlights the total vulnerability of even heavily fortified naval vessels to surprise attacks performed by drones.

The diversity in attack types poses a concern as explosive drone strikes cause physical damage and casualties to vessels plus its crew members.

Moreover, the use of drones for cyber-warfare can disrupt systems, leading to operational chaos and potential navigational hazards.

The maritime industry faces vulnerabilities.

The expansive nature of operations, vast sea territories and the difficulty in monitoring and intercepting drones worsen the challenge, where traditional defence mechanisms may prove insufficient.

The absence of adequate counter drone technologies and strategies amplifies the gaps/weakness of ships and maritime infrastructure.

Addressing these threats demands a comprehensive approach.

Developing and deploying advanced drone detection and mitigation technologies becomes imperative.

Collaborative efforts between governments, international organisations and the private sector are essential to enhance intelligence-sharing and deploy regulatory frameworks to counter such threats effectively.

The legal and regulatory framework concerning the use of drones in acts of aggression against maritime assets is still evolving.

The existing maritime laws and regulations may require amendments to accommodate the rapidly changing technological landscape.

A comprehensive legal framework should encompass guidelines on the use of drones in international waters to effectively address these emerging challenges.

Looking ahead over the next 12 months, it is likely that the frequency and sophistication of drone-based attacks is likely to rise.

As drone technology advances and become accessible and adaptable, we may anticipate a unique approach and higher range of attack including electronic warfare-based assaults that target ship navigation systems, communication networks as well as data theft.

The focus for the maritime industry must be angled towards implementing robust counter measures, effective response protocols and collaborations.

Ebunoluwa George Ojo-Ami

Experienced in maritime security, unmanned technology and operations management, Ebunoluwa George brings a wealth of expertise in research analysis within the maritime industry.

He is a member of the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts and holds memberships across multiple professional associations, along with numerous certifications.

His educational background is from the Maritime Academy of Nigeria.