In this ISJ Exclusive, Mark Brookes, Global Product & Standards Director, Gunnebo Safe Storage discusses jewellery retail security risks amid rising gold prices.
As gold prices climb, risk follows
The significant rise in gold prices is reshaping the risk landscape for jewellery retailers in a way that is both structural and cumulative.
While fluctuations in commodity prices are not new to the sector, the current trajectory has introduced a more fundamental challenge: the value of stock held within retail environments is increasing significantly faster than the systems installed to protect it.
Between March 2025 and March 2026, gold prices rose from approximately $3,019 to $4,447 per troy ounce, representing an increase of around 47 percent within a twelve-month period.
This shift directly alters the security equation inside every jewellery showroom, workshop and storage facility.
The same physical inventory now represents substantially higher financial exposure, while the physical footprint of that inventory remains unchanged.
The slow accumulation of risk
One of the defining characteristics of this issue is it rarely presents itself as an abrupt change.
Jewellery retailers do not typically experience a single moment where their security posture becomes outdated. Instead, risk accumulates gradually as commodity prices rise and inventory values follow.
Because operational security systems are often installed with long service lifespans in mind, they tend to be reviewed on fixed cycles or in response to specific incidents rather than continuous market movement.
As a result, there is often a lag between rising exposure and corresponding updates to protection measures.
This lag creates a condition where the perceived adequacy of security may no longer reflect actual risk.
Safes, vaults and storage systems that were once appropriately specified can become comparatively underpowered in relation to the value they are expected to protect.
The equipment itself may remain technically functional, but its relevance to the current threat environment diminishes over time.
This is particularly significant in jewellery retail, where the concentration of high-value, easily liquidated assets makes physical protection a primary control rather than a secondary consideration.
Changing threat economics and criminal incentives
The increase in gold prices also changes the external threat environment. Higher asset values alter the economics of criminal targeting.
This can have a direct impact on the level of sophistication and persistence involved in attempts to breach physical security systems.
Higher value environments justify greater effort, longer planning cycles and the use of more advanced tools or coordinated methods of entry.
Jewellery retailers find themselves operating in a risk environment, not helped by economic pressure, organised criminal activity, changes in retail operations and reduced deterrence where both opportunity and incentive have increased simultaneously.
This comes together to change the baseline assumptions that underpin traditional retail security technology design.
Systems previously considered proportionate may now sit below the threshold of deterrence required to meaningfully influence or delay attacker behaviour.
Insurance models under pressure
The insurance sector has been among the first to formally respond to this changing landscape. As exposure increases, underwriting approaches are becoming more granular, with greater emphasis placed on independently verified security performance.
Historically, jewellery retailers may have been able to demonstrate adequate protection through general classifications or legacy terminology relating to “high-security storage.”
Increasingly insurers are seeking evidence of tested resistance levels, defined performance standards and documented compliance with recognised certification frameworks.
This reflects a broader shift in insurance practice towards measurable risk alignment.
Coverage decisions are now more closely tied to the relationship between declared stock values and the physical systems used to protect them. Where this relationship is considered imbalanced, insurers may request upgrades, impose conditions or reassess premium structures accordingly.
The effect is physical security is no longer separate from financial risk or operational management.
The role of certification in risk translation
As both exposure and scrutiny increase, certified physical protection is becoming a critical mechanism for translating technical security performance into underwriting confidence.
Certification frameworks provide a structured and independently verified measure of resistance against defined attack methodologies.
This is particularly relevant in jewellery retail, where threats rarely follow predictable or singular patterns. Recent attacks have involved combinations of mechanical force, thermal tools and rapid escalation techniques designed to overwhelm unverified systems.
Without standardised benchmarks, it becomes difficult for insurers, security consultants and end-users to consistently evaluate whether a given solution is proportionate to the level of risk.
Certification functions as a common language between manufacturers, retailers and insurers, enabling clearer alignment between expectation and capability.
This alignment is increasingly important as asset values rise. The higher the exposure, the less tolerance there is for ambiguity in performance claims.
One example is the advances in core drilling attacks, although included in the general tool list within CEN T2 testing to a degree, to obtain a Core Dilling (CD) Rating, a dedicated test must be performed under a separate set of performance criteria.
Another is the focus on top-tier certified security solutions independently tested by Underwriters Laboratories (UL), such as TRTL 60×6 safes.
These systems establish a clear, independently verified benchmark of resistance against coordinated tool and torch attacks, helping standardise how protection levels are assessed across insurers, consultants and end-users.
Physical security as part of operational continuity
Jewellery retail environments are built around visibility, customer engagement and trust.
Security systems must operate within that context to enable retailers to continue with peace of mind to present a welcome shopping experience.
This creates a balancing act between accessibility and protection.
Excessively restrictive environments can negatively affect customer experience, while insufficient protection exposes the business to disproportionate risk. The objective is to integrate it in a way that supports operational continuity.
This requires a more holistic approach to security planning, right from initial design and specification where physical systems, procedural controls and staff awareness operate as a unified framework.
When these elements are aligned, security can be installed to allow retailers to maintain both openness and resilience.
The importance of reassessment cycles
Given the pace of change in commodity pricing, periodic reassessment of security posture is no longer sufficient unless it is treated as a continuous discipline. Retailers need to evaluate whether existing systems remain appropriate throughout their operational lifespan.
This involves working in partnership to reassess declared stock values in parallel with physical protection capabilities, ensuring neither element becomes disconnected from the other.
It also requires consideration of how storage practices, daily handling routines and overnight procedures interact with the underlying security infrastructure.
Where gaps are identified, the response is rarely a single intervention. Instead, it often involves layered improvements across physical, procedural and insurance dimensions.
Market expectations and the evolution of protection standards
As expectations rise, there is increasing emphasis on solutions that demonstrate performance under independently verified conditions.
This is particularly relevant in high-value environments where the consequences of failure are significant.
Multi-layered attack resistance is becoming a key benchmark in this context, reflecting the reality that threats are now rarely linear. Systems are expected to demonstrate resilience against combined attack techniques over sustained periods.
The John Tann TRTL 60×6 safe fits within high-security retail contexts for insurance requirements.
It provides certified six-sided resistance to tool and torch attacks for up to 60 minutes under controlled testing conditions, offering a consistent reference point for assessing suitability in higher-risk applications.
A structural shift in jewellery retail risk
Gold analysts believe gold will hold its value and its price may even go up this year due to conflicts and economic uncertainty.
As more value is held in smaller physical spaces, the importance of robust, certified and appropriately scaled security systems increases accordingly.
This shift places greater responsibility on retailers to ensure that their protection strategies evolve in step with market conditions rather than remaining static.
It also places greater emphasis on collaboration between retailers, insurers and security providers in defining what appropriate protection looks like in a high-value environment.
In summary, the relationship between gold prices and security risk in jewellery retail is now direct and measurable. Rising values have elevated exposure levels across the sector, while also increasing scrutiny from insurers and stakeholders responsible for underwriting risk.
In this context, security can no longer be treated as a fixed overhead or legacy installation. It must be viewed as a dynamic component of operational resilience that requires ongoing evaluation and alignment with current market conditions.
Retailers that proactively reassess their physical protection, insurance structures and operational procedures will be better positioned to maintain continuity, compliance and customer confidence.
Those that do not may find the gap between perceived security and actual exposure continues to widen in ways increasingly difficult to correct.
Ultimately, the effectiveness of retail security depends on whether each layer reflects the true value of what is being stored or displayed.
For high-value assets such as gold, the safe or strongroom remains the final safeguard and a critical consideration in any risk assessment.
at Gunnebo Safe Storage
